What happens if Britain votes to leave Europe?

LONDON—Political pundits think there’s a one in five chance of Britain deciding to quit the European Union in the next two years. The bookmakers put the odds even higher.
The reason? In the May 2015 general election, nearly four million people voted for a party, the UK Independence Party, whose purpose is to get Britain out of the EU, and in a battle to stave off that challenge the Conservative party promised a referendum on the issue.


Now, with a Conservative victory, the referendum is imminent. To shorten uncertainty, the government is planning to bring it forward, possibly to May 2016. So the Brits are in the middle of yet another existential wrangle about who they want to be.




Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron speaks during a press conference after the second day of the heads of state meeting at the EU council headquarters in Brussels, Belgium on 24.10.2014

Immigration is the main driver of the argument. In 2003, the countries of Western Europe opened their borders to "free movement" to people from eight former communist countries. Politicians in Britain predicted a few tens of thousands would come, but instead the country has seen the number of foreign born workers rise to by more than two million.

Evidence is heavily disputed, but many people in the deindustrialised cities of northern England perceive east European migration to have created a cheap labour economy and placed strain on public services like local doctors and primary schools. Meanwhile, because governments have tried to restrict migration from everywhere else, universities and high-tech employers are screaming blue murder that they can’t recruit from the global talent pool.

But Britain can’t take control of its migration policy without securing an opt out from the European rules –- which Germany’s leader Angela Merkel has ruled out. There are other issues –- like the European bureaucracy’s penchant for imposing business regulations the British don’t like, and the every growing cost of the Brussels bureacuracy, and they’ve led a number of senior Conservative politicians to conclude the threat to leave has to be real.

So if it happens, what next? And what happens to British politics?

Here’s where the whole issue collides with the phenomenon of Scottish nationalism. Last year a move by Scotland to leave the UK was defeated 45/55 -– but it was a close thing. The London-based parties had to throw everything at the Scottish electorate – including a heavy dose of fear.